2010 Stallion
Watch: The Best and the Worst
ATR
developed "Stallion Watch" to incite deeper
thought among mare owners shopping for stallion
seasons and shares. These lists will be updated frequently
to help our readers recognize some of the better values in
different portions of the market, as well as some of the
lesser values. If you agree or disagree with our commentary,
we invite you to tell us why.
Best Values, $35,000 to $50,000 |
1. Tapit ($50,000 Gainesway Farm) - If this guy sustains his current pace, he could be amongst the industry's elite in the near future. Even when looking past his headliners, the numbers are outstanding relative to a 1.53 CI. Ultra consistent across the board.
2. Malibu Moon ($40,000 Spendthrift Farm) - Primarily a source of speed, though he can get the classy 8-9 furlong type from time to time. Always has something out there keeping him in the news and generally solid from top to bottom.
3. Lemon Drop Kid ($35,000 Lane's End) - Currently getting an astonishing 15% stakes winners from starters, of which a third are of the graded variety. Doesn't always get eye-candy progeny, and they seldom win as two year olds, but they love a route of ground and can compete at all levels around the world.
Worst Values, $35,000 to $50,000 |
1. Empire Maker ($50,000 Juddmonte Farms) - Should be doing more if Juddmonte wants investors to write $50,000 checks. Overall stakes production and earning power is moderate at best when considering he's getting mares with a 3.88 Comparable Index.
2. Mr. Greeley ($50,000 Gainesway Farm) - Track numbers have never jived with what buyers are spending for his progeny in the sales ring. No one should be asking $50,000 for a sire with barely 6% stakes winners from starters and an AEI/CI deficit of .28.
3. Dixie Union ($35,000 Lanes End Farm) - Another high-priced sire that drags his mares down significantly (1.62 AEI vs. 1.99 CI) and fails to reach the 10% stakes winners from starters benchmark. Buyers are clearly paying too much for his progeny at the sales.
4. Speightstown ($35,000 WinStar Farm) - Undoubtedly will settle in as a useful sire for years to come, but struggles to get classic types and isn't performing up to his opportunities.
5. Stormy Atlantic ($35,000 Hill 'n' Dale Farms) - Doesn't need a huge fee adjustment, but there are a handful of sires standing for significantly less money that are putting up comparable numbers. Overall stakes production and AEI are more in line with sires in the 15-25k range.
Best Values, $20,000 to $30,000 |
1. Exchange Rate ($25,000 Three Chimneys Farm) - Standout physical specimen has strong numbers across the board, both in the sales ring and at the track. Tremendous investment value with little chance of getting a bad foal.
2. Bernstein ($25,000 Castleton Lyons) - Has quietly put together numbers comparable to elite sires. Well over 50% of his stakes winners are graded and he improves his mares by nearly 26%.
3. Arch ($25,000 Claiborne Farm) - Numbers have slid just a bit in recent years, but his foals are still averaging over $5,000 per start with average earnings per starter of $71,137. 2009 yearlings averaged nearly $90,000 with a healthy median of $60,000 making Arch a sensible investment for commercial investors as well.
Worst Values, $20,000 to $30,000 |
1. Ghostzapper ($30,000 Adena Springs) - Despite being supported by one of the best racing stables on the planet and mares with a Comparable Index of 3.54, matters look pretty bleak for Ghostzapper. Remote chance he'll recover, but $30,000 is a ridiculous amount for investors to risk at this point.
2. Mineshaft ($20,000 Lanes End) - Numbers look solid, but they're likely a function of his mare's 2.84 Comparable Index. Still doing better than some have done with equal opportunities, but $20,000 seems a bit high.
3. Broken Vow ($25,000 Pin Oak Stud) - Clearly a useful sire, but given he's well below the 10% stakes winners from starters benchmark, drags his mares down slightly, and his 09 yearlings barely covered the stud fee, he'd be much more appropriate in the $10,000 price range.
4. Tale of the Cat ($30,000 Ashford Stud) - Very similar to Broken Vow in that he's undoubtedly useful, but the numbers and percentages probably warrant a moderate price adjustment. Suspicious overall stakes production for a horse at this price point.
5. Rock Hard Ten ($25,000 Lanes End) - Possibly a bit premature to target this guy, but in a time where his three year olds should be amping up his numbers, they've actually gone south over the last few months. Still has a shot at making it, but his current fee isn't commensurate with the risk.
Best Values, $12,500 to $17,500 |
1. Successful Appeal ($17,500 Walmac Farm) - Simply put, he's getting numbers that far exceed many stallions standing for twice his current fee. Well over the 10% stakes winners benchmark and never misses a beat in all major statistical categories.
2. In Excess ($12,500 Vessels Stallion Farm) - Age has taken a toll with increased fertility problems, but if you can get your mare in foal, he's a tremendous source of class and versatility. As an added bonus, his sons have been surprisingly consistent early on.
3. Quiet American ($15,000 Darley) - Needs a unique type of mare in terms of conformation, but for the astute breeder, this guy can consistently get runners at all levels of American racing. Better fillies have tremendous appeal as broodmare prospects.
4. Smoke Glacken ($12,500 Gainesway Farm) - Just a hair light in terms of stakes and graded stakes production, but solid otherwise. Improves upon his opportunities and posts a strong median earnings of $35,212.
5. Yes It's True ($17,500 Three Chimneys Farm) - Track numbers have a few small holes, but for the commercial breeder, Yes It's True consistently gets standout physical specimens. Nearly half of his 09 yearlings brought at least $50,000.
Worst Values, $12,500 to $17,500 |
1. Perfect Soul ($15,000 Darby Dan Farm) - One of the most egregious fees we've seen in recent years. Investors have virtually no hope of a return on investment. Progeny are struggling to hit the breed average 1.00 AEI and his 09 yearlings sold for a median price of just $3,850.
2. Kitalpha ($12,500 War Horse Place) - Don't be fooled by his numbers from Zimbabwe and South Africa. It's hard enough for South American credentials to transfer to this country, let alone those from Zimbabwe. Will be a disaster for most investors.
3. Proud Citizen ($15,000 Airdrie Stud) - No where near the 10% stakes winners from starters we like to see in this price range. A useful type that gets attractive foals on a consistent basis, but just doesn't get the racing class to warrant mare owners writing a $15,000 check.
4. El Corredor ($15,000 Hill N Dale Farms) - Very similar to Proud Citizen in that he gets great looking foals and can be classified as somewhat useful, but just doesn't belong in this price range. Barely getting 5% stakes winners from starters.
5. Mizzen Mast ($15,000 Juddmonte Farms) - Doesn't need quite the fee adjustment of the two above, but still hard to justify considering he doesn't improve his mares and his stakes percentages are a bit low considering the support he's received from Juddmonte.
Best Values, $6,000 to $10,000 |
1. City Zip ($10,000 Lane's End Farm) - Numbers are solid in all areas, particularly as a function of getting precocious types capable of getting paychecks very early in their career. Gets the nod here as his foals fit the American racing scene a tad better than Pleasant Tap.
2. Pleasant Tap ($10,000 Lane's End Farm) - Can do it all... including being able to sire sensible and ultra durable offspring that can win at the highest levels of international racing. Quietly being taken for granted, even in a market that wants to place more value on proven sires.
3. Northern Afleet ($10,000 Taylor Made Farm) - Could use a few more graded stakes winners, but still one of the best in the business at this price point. Improves his mares by over 17% and habitually finds himself near the top of the general sires list.
4. Stroll ($7,500 Claiborne Farm) - Tremendous value for a sire with 21% stakes horses from starters while improving his mares by 34%. Early numbers aren't nearly as skewed by one runner as in the cases of Offlee Wild and Pollard's Vision.
5. Freud ($6,500 Sequel Stallions New York) - Has benefited from the bulk of his progeny running against restricted company, but should still be given credit for getting nearly 19% stakes horses from ordinary New York mares.
Worst Values, $6,000 to $10,000 |
1. Eurosilver ($6,000 Dromoland Farm) - Could not be off to a worse start. Lacks a single stakes horse while posting a .54 AEI. Current stud fee is off-the-charts bold considering his 09 yearlings had a median of just $6,500. Surprised he isn't in Pennsylvania already.
2. Eddington ($7,500 Claiborne Farm) - While it's not impossible for this guy to stage a turnaround, it's unlikely considering he's only posting a .64 AEI at this point and he doesn't have a single runner to go over the 50k mark. Ultra risky investment.
3. Roar of the Tiger ($6,000 Hartley/Derenzo Walmac South) - 23 yearlings in 2009 averaged a paltry $5,243 with a median of $2,000... making his 2010 fee one of the boldest we've seen in a while. Track performance doesn't help his case either considering he has just one stakes winner from 101 starters.
4. Chapel Royal ($10,000 Signature Stallions) - Gets a lot of early winners, but few of them go on to do much. Just 3 stakes winners from 171 starters and an AEI just barely above the breed average. Much more appropriate for the $2,500 price point.
5. Sligo Bay ($6,000 Adena Springs/Gardiner Farms Limited) - Definitely has a chance at settling in as a useful sire, but needs his fee cut in half while sporting a .68 AEI/CI deficit and getting only 3.3% stakes winners from starters.
Best Values, $5,000 or less |
1. Graeme Hall ($5,000 Winding Oaks Farm, FL) - Over a third of his stakes winners earned their credentials at the graded level and his foals win nearly one in five of their starts. Scintillating numbers for a sire at this price point.
2. Slew City Slew ($3,500 Airdrie Stud, KY) - An oldie but certainly a goodie, Slew City Slew's numbers are comparable to many sires standing for three times his current fee. Best of all, you'd be hard pressed to find a Slew City Slew with durability problems. They're absolute iron horses.
3. Benchmark ($4,000 River Edge Farm, CA) - Have to respect a sire that gets over 25% graded stakes winners (from overall stakes winners) on the tough California circuit. Improves upon his opportunities and is solid in all statistical categories.
4. Concerto ($3,500 Ocala Stud Farm, FL) - Continues to maintain outstanding numbers across the board despite his lack of commercial appeal. Numbers are skewed a bit by foreign earnings, but still outperforms many sires standing in the five figure range.
5. Kipling ($5,000 Crestwood Farm, KY) - A bit risky in terms of his libido issues, but for those lucky enough to get a mare in foal, you have to respect what he's done considering his miserable CI of .78.
Worst Values, $5,000 or less |
1. Strong Hope ($5,000 Winding Oaks Farm) - Few sires have faltered so badly after being given every opportunity to succeed. Just a single stakes winner from 86 starters despite mares that brought a 1.99 CI to the table. Always gets a great looking foal, but that's where the fun stops.
2. Ten Most Wanted ($4,000 Magali Farms) - Has a few winners under his belt since we named him our top choice in this category last year, but is yet to sire a stakes winner and his foals win at a paltry 8% clip. Stud fee needs to be divided by 10.
3. Consolidator ($5,000 Journeyman Stud) - Less than a third of his starters have visited the winner's circle and their earning power is 35% below the breed average. No upside at this price point.
4. Action This Day ($3,500 Dana Point Farm) - Zero signs of life thus far with one lone stakes winner from 95 starters and an AEI that drags his mares down by nearly 70%. No investment value to speak of, particularly when he stands in a state that allows mare owners to breed in Kentucky.
5. Say Florida Sandy ($3,000 Buckridge Farm) - Had hoped such a durable individual would have shown more prowess as a sire, but unfortunately, it just isn't happening, even against restricted state-bred company.
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