2012 Stallion Watch:  The Best and the Worst

    ATR developed "Stallion Watch" to incite deeper thought among mare owners shopping for stallion seasons and shares.  These lists will be updated frequently to help our readers recognize some of the better values in different portions of the market, as well as some of the lesser values.  If you agree or disagree with our commentary, we invite you to tell us why.

1. Distorted Humor ($100,000 WinStar Farm, KY) - Sales numbers are comparable to Indian Charlie's, placed as our second choice simply because of the extra $25,000 it takes to get to him. The industry's best example of a sire who can get high end types that last beyond a dozen starts.

2. Pulpit ($50,000 Claiborne Farm, KY) - Yearlings averaged over $171,000 in 2011 with a strong median of $175,000 and on the verge of becoming a steadfast sire of sires. Everything to like.

1. More Than Ready ($60,000 Vinery, KY) - Numbers are problematic across the board, both in the sales ring and at the racetrack. Yearlings are currently trading at a median price that wouldn't even cover his 2012 fee. Track numbers are equally troubling for investors.

2. Kitten's Joy ($50,000 Ramsey Farm, KY) - Like More Than Ready, his yearlings are trading for a median price that makes investment treacherous, and we suspect his recent spike in stakes production will parallel what we saw in Sky Mesa a few years ago. Look for a big drop in his fee next year.

3. Elusive Quality ($50,000 Darley, KY) - Fee has been slipping for some time now, but it isn't falling fast enough for astute investors. Can't imagine who is writing $50,000 checks for a sire with suspicious track numbers and a yearling median price that fails to cover the stud fee.

4. Tiznow ($75,000 WinStar Farm, KY) - Clearly able to get the headline grabbers, but his overall body of work has issues. Most notably, his progeny struggle with durability much like his sire's progeny. Additionally, his numbers in the sales ring create a risky proposition relative to his 2012 fee.

5. Awesome Again ($50,000 Adena Springs, KY) - One of the better horses in this category in terms of racetrack numbers, but ultra risky for the commercial breeder in that he frequently gets smallish types that don't sell well. Overall average ($191,868) indicates the market will pay big for his better individuals, but the median ($65,000) tells us he frequently gets small/ordinary types.

1. Lemon Drop Kid ($35,000 Lanes End Farm, KY) - In an era where the 10% stakes winners from starters threshold is becoming obsolete, Lemon Drop Kid is getting over 12% and his progeny reward investors handsomely in the sales ring.

2. Arch ($30,000 Claiborne Farm, KY) - Doesn't have to ride the coattails of his mares and still gets runners at the elite levels.  Outperforming several at higher price points both at the track and in the sales ring.

3. Lonhro ($30,000 Darley, KY) - A bit risky to endorse a sire without any domestic progeny, particularly a turf specialist, but he's getting stakes horses at an alarming rate. A great resource for American breeders who are growing tired of fragile types.

1. Street Sense ($40,000 Darley, KY) - Seriously? $40,000 for a horse whose progeny's earning power is just a tick over the breed average? Just one stakes winner from his first 53 starters and he's dragging his mares down by a jaw dropping 57%. One of the more ridiculous fees out there.

2. Hard Spun ($40,000 Darley, KY) - Will likely settle in as a useful enough sire, but given the fact that 50% of his 81 starters have earned less than $7,000, it's unlikely he'll be at this price point much longer. Showing early signs of not being able to get the big horse. Best to wait until next year.

3. Stormy Atlantic ($40,000 Hill 'N' Dale Farms, KY) - Before you sign up for this guy at $40,000 or overspend on one of his yearlings, do yourself a favor and compare his track numbers with Pure Prize's. At his current fee, virtually all of his foals will lose money in the sales ring in 2014.

4. Sky Mesa ($30,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY) - Clearly a useful enough sire, but his numbers are more comparable to what we find in the 10-15k range. Hard to understand paying $30,000 for a sire with a 2011 median yearling price of $30,000.

5. Congrats ($35,000 Vinery, KY) - Liked him last year at 15k, but don't understand the justification behind the hike to 35k. Weanlings and yearlings traded without much fanfare in 2011 and his stakes production has dropped off significantly in recent months.

1. Exchange Rate ($25,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY) - First crop of KY-conceived two year olds were solid to say the least, showing his Florida crops weren't flukes. Gives investors a myriad of options whether it's at the track or in the sales ring.

2. Flatter ($15,000 Claiborne Farm, KY) - Improves his mares by nearly 40%, his progeny win at an 18% clip, and if you bring a good one to the sales, the market will reward you handsomely.

3. Bellamy Road ($20,000 WinStar Farm, KY) - Has done everything right so far despite not getting the best mares early on. Gets big strapping types that the market is drawn to and provides investors with a solid chance of a profitable venture.

4. Scat Daddy ($17,500 Ashford Stud, KY) - Appears to be embarking on a long successful stud career with several from his first crop reaching the elite levels in this country. Success not limited to the track as his foals are highly sought out in the sales ring as well.

1. Any Given Saturday ($15,000 Darley, KY) - When mares bred to Any Given Saturday are sent to other stallions, the earning power of the resulting progeny is 116% higher than what resulted from the Any Given Saturday matings. Foals aren't even close to the breed average, let alone what should be expected from a $15,000 stallion. Awful from all angles.

2. Corinthian ($17,500 Gainesway, KY) - From his initial 81 starters, just 31 have visited the winner's circle, only three have earned black-type, and half have earned less than $9,000. The marketplace is catching on as well, as evidenced by his 2012 yearling median of $4,500 and a covering sire average of $12,833.  Has no business in this price range.

3. English Channel ($25,000 Lane's End, KY) - Simply put, despite having access to solid books of mares, this horse has been a complete flop regardless of how you try to spin it. A cellar dweller in all statistical categories including sales numbers where the vast majority of investors are losing their shirts.

4. Invasor ($20,000 Shadwell Farm, KY) - Can't write him off completely, but things don't look good. Those willing to take such a huge risk based on his current numbers shouldn't be asked to ante up $20,000.  Shouldn't even be asked for $5,000.

5. Bluegrass Cat ($17,500 Vinery at Sugar Maple, NY) - Current fee is more a function of the mediocre NY stallion roster than any anticipated ROI. Struggles with stakes production, drags mares down considerably, and his 2012 yearlings are averaging less than $7,000.

6. Point Given ($20,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY) - Point Given's yearlings haven't averaged over $8,000 since 2009, he drags his mares significantly, and over 56% of his foals never visit the winners circle. A $3,500 sire at best.