2012 Stallion Watch:  The Best and the Worst

    ATR developed "Stallion Watch" to incite deeper thought among mare owners shopping for stallion seasons and shares.  These lists will be updated frequently to help our readers recognize some of the better values in different portions of the market, as well as some of the lesser values.  If you agree or disagree with our commentary, we invite you to tell us why.

1. Indian Charlie ($75,000 Airdrie Stud, KY) - Current fee leaves ample room for investors to capitalize, particularly in the sales ring where his 41 yearlings in 2011 averaged over $200,000.  Racing numbers are bullet proof. Needs a durable mare, but otherwise nearly impossible to fault.

2. Distorted Humor ($100,000 WinStar Farm, KY) - Sales numbers are comparable to Indian Charlie's, placed as our second choice simply because of the extra $25,000 it takes to get to him. The industry's best example of a sire who can get high end types that last beyond a dozen starts.

3. Pulpit ($50,000 Claiborne Farm, KY) - Yearlings averaged over $171,000 in 2011 with a strong median of $175,000 and on the verge of becoming a steadfast sire of sires. Everything to like.

1. More Than Ready ($60,000 Vinery, KY) - Numbers are problematic across the board, both in the sales ring and at the racetrack. Yearlings are currently trading at a median price that wouldn't even cover his 2012 fee. Track numbers are equally troubling for investors.

2. Kitten's Joy ($50,000 Ramsey Farm, KY) - Like More Than Ready, his yearlings are trading for a median price that makes investment treacherous, and we suspect his recent spike in stakes production will parallel what we saw in Sky Mesa a few years ago. Look for a big drop in his fee next year.

3. Elusive Quality ($50,000 Darley, KY) - Fee has been slipping for some time now, but it isn't falling fast enough for astute investors. Can't imagine who is writing $50,000 checks for a sire with suspicious track numbers and a yearling median price that fails to cover the stud fee.

4. Tiznow ($75,000 WinStar Farm, KY) - Clearly able to get the headline grabbers, but his overall body of work has issues. Most notably, his progeny struggle with durability much like his sire's progeny. Additionally, his numbers in the sales ring create a risky proposition relative to his 2012 fee.

5. Awesome Again ($50,000 Adena Springs, KY) - One of the better horses in this category in terms of racetrack numbers, but ultra risky for the commercial breeder in that he frequently gets smallish types that don't sell well. Overall average ($191,868) indicates the market will pay big for his better individuals, but the median ($65,000) tells us he frequently gets small/ordinary types.

1. Lemon Drop Kid ($35,000 Lanes End Farm, KY) - In an era where the 10% stakes winners from starters threshold is becoming obsolete, Lemon Drop Kid is getting over 12% and his progeny reward investors handsomely in the sales ring.

2. Arch ($30,000 Claiborne Farm, KY) - Doesn't have to ride the coattails of his mares and still gets runners at the elite levels.  Outperforming several at higher price points both at the track and in the sales ring.

3. Lonhro ($30,000 Darley, KY) - A bit risky to endorse a sire without any domestic progeny, particularly a turf specialist, but he's getting stakes horses at an alarming rate. A great resource for American breeders who are growing tired of fragile types.