Under-Valued Sales Sires
As we saw last month at Fasig-Tipton, the American yearling market could be the first indication that the bloodstock market is about to embark on a self-imposed correction. Pinhookers were reluctant to over-expose their programs to exuberant yearling prices, and buyers in search of racing stock were more discriminating, particularly in the middle of the markets. The result was a drop in overall average and median prices and a buy-back rate of one out of every three. One phenomenon persists however: The hype and anticipation of 1st year sires continues to carry a premium. Several stallions with first crop yearlings had good showings, including $100,000+ averages for Street Cry, Buddha, Officer, E Dubai, Came Home, and Orientate.
"When we know that at least 80% of all sire prospects will
be labeled as failures in 2-4 years, why on earth do
bloodstock experts persuade their clients to buy yearlings
sired by an unproven commodity?"
With the odds stacked against any stallion becoming a successful sire (for more details, click here) this is perhaps the most puzzling and illogical phenomenon that bloodstock analysts come across. When we know that at least 80% of all sire prospects will be labeled as failures in 2-4 years, why on earth do bloodstock experts persuade their clients to buy yearlings from these unproven commodities? At the very least, shouldn’t they keep their spending in line with the risk involved? Better yet, cast an economic vote and buy yearlings from proven sires. In the long run, the cumulative effect may be re-shaping the market into favoring proven performance, not hype and marketing techniques.
With this in mind, we put together a list of undervalued sires in the commercial market that buyers would be wise to pay attention to as they travel to this year’s yearling sales. In alphabetical order, here are a group of seven sires with 2004 yearling averages under $40,000 who we feel represent terrific value, especially in light of what some buyers are paying for yearlings by unproven stallions:
Crafty Prospector (25 sold, $35,824 average): With average earnings per starter over $100,000 and strong numbers all the way around, you’d have a hard time finding anyone who will argue against his value. But there’s an added bonus when you sign a ticket for one of his yearlings: They’re absolute iron horses. Unlike many of the sires who come from this sire line, Crafty Prospector instills durability in the vast majority of his foals, lessening the chance that buyers will end up with a money pit that never sees a race.
Devil His Due (20 sold, $28,038): If you’re looking for a flashy type that you can show off to your friends right after the sale, yearlings by Devil His Due may not fit the bill. But if you want to be seen in the winner’s circle, he may be exactly what you’re looking for. Devil His Due can sire success stories at all levels and offers prospective buyers a realistic chance of getting a nice racehorse at a reasonable cost.
Matty G (13 sold, $24,032): When is this horse going to start getting some of the respect he deserves? If you’re looking for a sire who thrives at getting graded stakes quality foals, Matty G is getting them at a 4.5% clip, and the best may be yet to come as his first Kentucky crop is just now getting to the races.
Mutakddim (28 sold, $35,240): Hard to believe that buyers are willing to spend six figures on yearlings sired by unproven stallions when you have the likes of Mutakddim with a 2004 yearling average of just over $35,000. Besides improving his mares significantly and a clear ability to get top level horses in the United States, Mutakddim’s progeny can compete on a variety of surfaces through out the world.
Silver Ghost (16 sold, $27,625): Though unlikely to get a classic-type, yearling buyers should remember that Silver Ghost has sired 3 Grade One winners and has few holes in his sire record. The likelihood of any unproven stallion ever measuring up to Silver Ghost are remote.
Slew City Slew (29 sold, $11,052): Recent Grade One successes of Sis City and Lava man may be misleading as to what we typically see from Slew City Slew, who is best known for siring durable runners who excel at mid-level tracks. Regardless, he represents phenomenal value for buyers who are picking up his yearlings for an average of just over $11,000.
Stormy Atlantic (26 sold, $23,346): We were shocked to see this guy’s 2004 average. Typically, you see nothing but eye-catching yearlings from him, and his sire record is rock-solid, including one-third of his stakes winners being graded stakes quality. A no-brainer if his yearlings continue at the same pace in 2005.
