New categories added weekly!
Worst Values, $35,000- $75,000
1. Bernardini ($50,000, Darley, KY)
The market has overpaid for his progeny for years. Numbers paint a clear picture of a stallion that has ridden the coattails of the blue-blood mares being sent his way. Drags mares down in a way we’ve never seen before, and seasons are trading privately significantly below the advertised price.
2. Union Rags ($60,000, Lane’s End, KY)
Clearly a useful sire that will be around for a long time, but $60,000 is excessive for a horse with just a 1.32 AEI after covering more than his share of quality mares early in his career. Stakes percentages are a bit lackluster as well. More of a $15,000 sire.
3. Kitten’s Joy ($75,000, Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms, KY)
If a mare owner doles out $75,000 on a stud fee, he/she should have a better than average chance of turning a profit. But wth Kitten’s Joy, the odds are stacked against his investors. His 74 yearlings that went through the ring in 2018 netted a median of just $45,000. Undoubtedly an elite racehorse sire, but at this price point, mare owners should have commercial options.
Best Values, $20,000 – $30,000
1. Munnings ($20,000, Ashford Stud, KY)
When you look at his entire body of work, there’s a diminishing fine line between Munnings and elite, six-figure sires. Progeny are gritty, durable types that visit the winner’s circle once every five starts. Will likely be north of $25,000 next year at this time.
2. Kantharos ($20,000, Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms, KY)
Classic overachiever that earned his way to Kentucky by improving on just average Florida mares. Numbers will only get better in looking at his current trajectory, and the commercial market loves him. Will be a force in central Kentucky for years to come.
3. Jimmy Creed ($20,000, Spendthrift Farm, KY)
Hitting on all cylinders early and isn’t resting on the laurels of his mares. Demonstrating he can get elite, durable, U.S. graded stakes quality progeny. Gets nice balanced/athletic foals, but like his sire, benefits from a taller/leggier mare.
4. Mineshaft ($20,000, Lane’s End, KY)
Has done everything right for years now, and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Progeny can go short and long (though they typically prefer to route) and are well represented in graded stakes on the dirt in this country. Investors can feel confident they’ll have options in the sales ring, at the track… and his daughters are off to a great start in the breeding shed.
5. Lookin At Lucky ($20,000, Ashford Stud, KY)
A clear and obvious source of quality around the world. Commercial market isn’t as hot on his progeny as it should be, but his track numbers suggest buyers should be paying more attention. Solid numbers from every angle and is great for smaller mares.
Worst Values, $20,000 – $30,000
1. Super Saver ($30,000, WinStar Farm, KY)
Has been terribly overpriced for the last two breeding seasons, and is probably the most overpriced stallion in all categories for 2019. Commercial numbers continue to sink, and his track numbers have all sorts of problems including an AEI of just 1.11. From any angle, make zero sense.
2. Bodemeister ($25,000, WinStar Farm, KY)
Few young stallions have received such strong support as Bodemeister. Unfortunately, he just isn’t living up to the hype. May settle in as a useful type at the $7,500 to $10,000 price point, but those paying $25,000 this year will get scorched.
3. Shackleford ($20,000, Darby Dan Farm, KY)
Commercial numbers are in a nose dive. Virtually no chance of turning a profit in the sales ring at the current fee. Track numbers are problematic to the point where several $5,000 to $7,500 stallions make more sense for those breeding to race. 2020 stud fee will be cut by at least 50%.
4. Will Take Charge ($30,000, Three Chimneys Farm, KY)
It’s obviously very early, but I wouldn’t sleep well after signing up for this horse at $30,000. Progeny are winning at just a 12% clip with an AEI of just slightly above the breed average… and a third of his stakes horses are from Peru and Trinidad.
5. Cairo Prince ($20,000, Airdrie Stud, KY)
Still getting strong support from the commercial market, but when you delve into his track numbers, there are reasons for pause. Dragging his mares down by 39% with an AEI of right at the breed average. Don’t see him at this price point next year.
Best Values, $12,500 – $15,000
1. Midnight Lute ($15,000, Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms, KY)
Very difficult to go wrong with this horse, particularly if you have a smaller mare. For those breeding to race, he should be on everyone’s list. Strong numbers that compute in just about any horseman’s business plan.
2. First Samurai ($15,000, Claiborne Farm, KY)
Very similar to Midnight Lute in terms of being a great choice for those breeding to race. But also like Midnight Lute, you have to be careful in the type of physical you send his way. Not as good a choice as Midnight Lute if you’re going to the sales.
3. Sky Mesa ($15,000, Three Chimneys Farm, KY)
You’d be hard pressed to find a knowledgeable breeder who doesn’t have a healthy respect for Sky Mesa. Can’t necessarily endorse this fee from a commercial standpoint, but if you’re breeding to race, his progeny are frequently outperforming the progeny of elite sires.
Worst Values, $12,500 – $15,000
1. Verrazano ($15,000, Ashford Stud, KY)
His first two crops were full of stunning physical specimens, but unfortunately, that isn’t translating into success at the track. Winning just 9% of their starts in maiden company with a paltry AEI of just .56 as of this writing. The bottom started to fall out on his commercial appeal in November when his weanlings traded for a median net of less than $9,000.
2. Oxbow ($15,000, Calumet Farm, KY)
Sons of Awesome Again can be late bloomers as sires, but the odds are long with Oxbow. Drags his mares down significantly, and really has nothing in his track stats to indicate quality of any kind. Suspect 2019 seasons are trading for less than a third of the advertised fee.
3. The Factor ($15,000, Lane’s End, KY)
He has one small subset that is performing moderately well, but when you look at his entire body of work, $15,000 makes no sense to the astute investor. Predicting that at least two thirds of commercial breeders signing up at the current fee will lose their shirts.
4. Orb ($12,500, Claiborne Farm, KY)
Seemed like everybody loved this horse’s chances back in 2014, but the wheels are starting to come off. Despite enormous support from industry elites, his progeny’s earning power is below the breed average with just three stakes winners from 122 starters.
5. Animal Kingdom ($15,000, Darley, KY)
With 54 yearlings in 2018 selling for a net median of less than $15,000, his 2019 fee is a head scratcher. Little if any chance of a ROI for commercial breeders supporting him in 2019. At the track, the earning power of his progeny are about of foals out of the same mares but by different stallions. Would be surprised to see him in Kentucky next year.
Best Values, $7,500 – $10,000
1. Mizzen Mast ($10,000, Juddmonte Farms, KY)
As tried and true as we’ve ever seen in this price range. The commercial market will still pay handsomely for a good one, and if you’re breeding to race, he’s a no-brainer, particularly if you an overly refined mare.
2. Freud ($7,500, Sequel Stallions New York, NY)
The King of New York for several years now, he’s also shown that he can get elite U.S. graded stock as well. Seldom gets anything but a very attractive foal. Farm may be leaving money on the table as I suspect NY breeders would pay more for such a potent sire.
3. Midshipman ($8,500, Darley, KY)
Track numbers are very appealing for a horse at this price point… or any price point for that matter. Very consistent and perhaps the only Unbridled’s Song capable of getting durable stock. Warrants consideration for anyone breeding to race.
4. Ransom the Moon ($7,500, Calumet Farm, KY)
If you’re playing the first year sire angle for the commercial market, you’d have to think a two-time G1 winner by Malibu Moon is going to hit some home runs off a $7,500 stud fee. Lots of size/scope for such a quick horse.
5. Army Mule ($10,000, Hill N Dale Farm, KY)
Clearly not the strongest pedigree amongst first-year stallions, but one of the most talented horses we’ve ever seen. His performance in the Carter was one for the ages and nobody gets stallions off to better starts than Hill N Dale. Shouldn’t surprise anyone if he emulates Maclean’s Music and/or Kantharos.
Worst Values, $7,500 – $10,000
1. Fed Biz ($10,000, WinStar Farm, KY)
First foals appeared to be precocious types, but the early results are disappointing. Not to say that he can’t catch fire down the road, but his progeny are winning just 9% of their starts with just one stakes winner from his first 47 starters. 2019 fee isn’t commensurate with the risk.
2. Trappe Shot ($7,500, Claiborne Farm, KY)
This ship sailed a long time ago. Track numbers leave a lot to be desired, and the bottom has fallen out in the sales ring. Would be shocked if he’s still in KY this time next year.
3. Daddy Long Legs ($10,000, Taylor Made Stallions, KY)
Anything is possible, but this horse is an enormous long shot to make it in this country. Unplaced in 13 of his 16 starts with just one graded stakes horse under the first two dams. Ultra risky whether you’re breeding to sell or race.
4. Alternation ($10,000, Pin Oak Stud, KY)
Has definitely rebounded somewhat, but his overall body of work is still lackluster at best. Less than 10% stakes horses from starters and he’s dragging his mares down by 27% with an AEI below the average for the breed. 2018 yearlings netted an average of less than $14,000.
5. Tapizar ($10,000, Gainesway, KY)
Track numbers are problematic from a variety of angles, and if you omit Monomoy Girl (who accounts for 28% of his total progeny earnings), you have even bigger problems. Expect a sharp decline in 2019 sales numbers.
Best Values, $5,000 AND UNDER
1. Dominus ($5,000, Spendthrift Farm, KY)
We continue to scratch our heads as to why this horse isn’t getting more respect in the sales ring. His track numbers are nearly bullet-proof with loads of consistency. A big, attractive horse that almost always gets the same in his progeny. Value epitomized.
2. Daaher ($3,000, Circle H Farms, LA)
Overlooked for years, prompting this year’s move to Louisiana.
Regardless of geography, this is another ultra consistent sire that rarely gets a bad one. Requires a certain type of physical from his mares, but otherwise a stellar sire. Should be a man amongst boys in Louisiana.
3. Old Forester ($4,000, T.C. Westmeath Stud Farm, ON)
Gets an absolutely beautiful foal and can improve even the most plain mares. Numbers have been solid for several years now… and not just in restricted company. Would absolutely use this horse if he were in Kentucky.
4. Valiant Minister ($3,000, Bridlewood Farm, FL)
Only on rare occasion do we mention a 1st/2nd year stallion, but this horse deserves a shout. A big, attractive and regally bred son of Candy Ride with elite speed/class. Every year, one or two young Florida sires seem to make a splash commercially, and we’re confident Valiant Minister will be one of them when his first weanlings/yearlings sell.
5. Mark Valeski (Private, Airdrie Stud, KY)
Nobody, including myself, had this horse on their radar when he entered stud in Florida, but his first crop to race have done everything right this year. First or second in 8 of 10 starts, more of us should have paid attention to him back in 2015. An A++ physical specimen with lots of size. Will improve virtually any mare.
Worst Values, $5,000 and Under
1. Tu Brutus ($5,000, Crestwood Farm, KY)
We hate to get all over a horse after he’s bred just one book of mares, but to our knowledge, a horse with Chilean racing credentials has never made it in this country. Extremely difficult to imagine a scenario where this horse will create a positive return for investors in the sales ring or at the track.
2. Real Solution ($5,000, Blue Star Racing, LA)
Early indications are that he isn’t infusing much class in his progeny. Just one of his first 19 starters broke their maiden against special weights, and they’re averaging less than $3,000 per start against non-winners. It wouldn’t be impossible for a son of Kitten’s Joy to get better as his progeny mature, but the safe money is against this horse long term.
3. Shakin It Up ($5,000, Spendthrift Farm, KY)
Showed some promise early and was particularly adept at getting attractive progeny, but there are some strong deficiencies in his track numbers as of this writing. 38 yearlings in 2018 netted a median price of just $9,000. Most likely headed to a regional market next year.
4. Morning Line ($5,000, Lane’s End, KY)
Looked like many of us had overlooked him early when he got the Landaluce winner, but he’s fizzling badly in recent months. Getting zero love in the sales ring, and he has just two stakes winners from his first 69 starters.
5. Justin Phillip ($5,000, Castleton Lyons, KY)
Earning power, as measured by the AEI, is 10% under the average for the breed… and significantly below the average for stallions standing in Kentucky. Gets a big/attractive foal, but that’s where the fun stops for investors. Very few mare owners will reap a profit by investing in him at $5,000.